Santa Fe Institute and researchers at MIT have found out that formula’s particularly, Moore’s law and Wright’s law, used for predicting how fast technology will advance offer enhanced estimates of the pace of the progress.
This research is a first of its kind to compare the diverse approaches in a quantitative way. Extensive database that include past performances of many different industries have been compared to reach to this conclusion.is progress of technology..
The results can help industries to consider where exactly to focus in their research efforts. The findings would also be beneficial for investors to pick high growth sectors while regulators to envisage the economic impact of the changes made in the policies.
The Moore’s law formula that describes the rate of improvement in the power of computer chips was originally formulated by the Intel co-founder, Gordon Moore. The research indicated that it is one of the two formulas that match technological progress over past decades.
The other formula, Wright’s law was formulated in 1936 and holds that progress increases with experience.
To carry out the research, an extensive set of data for 62 different industries based on actual cost and production levels was collected. Commodities like manganese, beer, cars, computers, solar cells etc. were taken into account.
Government reports, market research publications and other published sources were scoured to compile the database and only those sources were used for which at least a decade’s worth of data was available. The data was then analyzed by using different formulas, calculating which formula best fit the pace of technological advances in previous decades.
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